A Scarcity Perspective

You can do something about it.

There are ten cookies on a plate. Good ones, not Oreo double stuff. The rich guy in charge takes nine of the cookies and gives them to his friends. He then tells you, “Look out, that guy in the shadows over there is trying to take your cookie.”

This short parable is an example of contrived scarcity thinking, with a side order of xenophobia. It’s used to inform and influence public policy by, you guessed it, the rich guys. Rachel Gardner, in the context of book publishing, posits “enough” as the opposite of scarcity. I agree that enough is enough and the opposite of scarcity is not abundance. If the rich guy only took eight, there would be a cookie for the guy in the shadows and one for me. Perhaps if there was enough there would be no need to worry about the shadows. Even better if the rich guy took only six of the ten cookies.

We don’t want to defend abundance as our policy goal. It’s wasteful and abundance leaves us too much to defend. We don’t each need a lot to get by. We need enough. As the old criminal lawyer that I am, I also reflexively flinch at taking on more of a burden of proof than necessary. Never over promise or over ask. To quote the disciples, “You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometime, you'll find you get what you need.”

This first post in the new year includes an assignment. Your assignment is to view upcoming changes to public policy from an “enough” mindset and to find ways to call out the diversions used by the most powerful to distract us from complaining about contrived scarcity. I am asking you to write about, talk about and think about the times when those in power deploy a scarcity mindset when the resources or revenues at issue are not in fact scarce. Do this in whatever way you are most comfortable—in a letter to the editor, at your school district meeting, in your private journal, or in conversations with friends and loved ones. Do it in terms of national policy that affects access to health care, or state policy that affects the funding of education or in local policy that encourages construction of more affordable housing.

Thinking about the scarcity economy is important now because many states are about to embark on building state budgets. People say budgets are a statement of priorities, which is true. But budgets are also an indication of a state’s perspective. Do we live in a “scarcity state” where people are asked to go without necessities or do we strive to be an “enough state” for everyone? Do we arrive at this perspective after thoughtful consideration of our assets and needs or do political leaders contrive to artificially set our expectations? Are all ten cookies on the plate or have nine of them been poached by insiders and political donors?

A state’s gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by private industry in that state. NH’s GDP in 2023 was $112.5 billion, larger than Maine’s which was $90.9 billion. But Maine is the fastest growing of the New England states likely because of Governor Mills’ focus on policies that invest in Maine’s people (e.g., free community college) or that encourage in-migration (e.g., tax credits to pay off student loans). Mills has taken an “enough mindset” and it has helped Maine tremendously. NH under Sununu and the Republicans has adopted a trickle down approach based on a contrived scarcity of revenues and NH is falling behind as a result.

NH’s budget will approach seven billion dollars a year. Our combined state and local tax burden is among the lowest in the nation. Our choice of which taxes to use, however, makes the burden fall unequally on our taxpayers with some bearing a particularly harsh burden while others get off with paying a lot less in taxes.

A NH multi-millionaire living in a low-tax property wealthy community may only spend a pittance on local and state taxes while a family whose only major asset is their home pays 20 or 30 percent of their income on property taxes and a similar amount on daycare. Worse yet, NH’s scarcity mindset combined with its trickle-down economics has led young people in our state to give up the dream of homeownership altogether.

Do we start the budget process simply by accepting that our unfair and regressive tax system produces too little revenue to support the needs of the people who live in our state or do we ask if everyone is paying their fair share?

Here is how the budget process works in NH. It’ll be similar in other states. Knowing the process will give you ideas about when you might call out its unfairness.

The budget process for NH’s new governor, Kelly Ayotte, started under Governor Sununu. Governor Ayotte must present her budget to the public before February 15^th. Her budget will be based on her priorities but also on data and assumptions compiled for her by NH’s tax agency, the Department of Revenue Administration (DRA). NH’s revenue projections are down because decisions by Governor Sununu foolishly cut taxes when short term influxes of federal money made our economy look stronger than it was. The repeal of the Interest and Dividends Tax , for example, will result in a loss of revenues of more than $150 million a year. When Sununu asked agencies to present their budget requests to him, he asked the agencies to assume a 4 percent cut next year. Some budget experts think he should have asked for a 6 percent cut given all the tax cuts he approved.

Once the budget is presented, it then goes to the House Finance Committee as House Bill 1. Ken Wyler is the chair of House Finance (R-Kingston). Weyler previously was removed from his committee chairmanship for spewing bonkers conspiracy theories about COVID vaccines, as mentioned by Stephen Colbert on national television. The ranking Democrat is Mary Jane Wallner (D-Concord). Hearings are held by House Finance to work through the details of cuts to be made to meet revenue projections and to reflect the priorities of Republican leadership. At the same time, the House Ways and Means Committee reviews and fine tunes revenue projections. The chair of Ways and Means is John Janagian (R-Salem). The ranking member is Susan Almy (D-Lebanon). By April, the budget is sent to the House floor for a vote and the version that passes goes to the Senate where a similar process occurs. As the House and Senate versions of the budget seldom agree, there is then a committee of conference in June to work out a compromise. The conference committee’s membership is determined by House Speaker Sherm Packard (R-Londonderry) and Senate President Sharon Carson (R-Londonderry).

If $420 million is to be cut from NH’s budget (6% of $7 billion), what does this mean? Are failing bridges and pot-holed roads not repaired? Are safety net programs for housing cut? If you’re a law and order type, does the State Police budget get cut? How will the budget writers deal with new school funding requirements?

There will be opportunities to defend the programs being targeted as budget cuts are proposed. Do so but it is as important to continually point out the cuts are the result of poor leadership and that prior tax cuts can be reversed. Dare I say it, we can even advocate for more equitable methods of taxation that have everyone paying their fair share.

For more on NH’s budget, go here. (Thanks NHFPI.)

I know it can feel tiresome to continually harp on a message but you don’t know when your concerns will catch on. It’s the job of elected members of the legislature to listen to their constituents and advance a budget that moves our state forward. As a member of the public, it is your job to ensure your elected officials know you are watching.

Thanks to M.